Month: August 2020

Hospitalization Data for Texas – August 29, 2020

The data source is Texas Department of Health Services and the data is up to data as of August 29, 2020.

The downward movement of total number of hospitalizations in Texas continued past seven days:

Fig. 1 – Total number of hospitalizations in Texas April 12, 2020 – August 29, 2020

The three main contributing TSAs (Trauma Service Areas) are still E – Dallas/Fort Worth, P – San Antonio and Q – Houston:

Fig. 2 – Hospitalizations in TSAs E, P, Q April 12, 2020 – August 29, 2020

Houston has almost come down to the same level of hospitalizations as Dallas/Fort Worth and all three are going down in numbers.

Fig. 3 – Hospitalizations in all TSAs except E, P, Q April 12, 2020 – August 29, 2020

V – Lower Rio Grande Valley is still the largest contributor, but still coming down nicely. O – Austin is also reducing hospitalizations in a significant manner.

Two Tropical Storms on Way to Louisiana Coast

There are two tropical cyclone systems that are moving towards the Louisiana coast. Both at the time of writing have tropical storm (TS) strength.

Laura has its center located above Haiti. It is farther away from Louisiana and thus its future track is still somewhat uncertain, but it is currently forecasted to move to the Louisiana coast and make landfall somewhere West of New Orleans on Wednesday evening. However, future forecasts for Laura might still change significantly. Laura is expected to have Hurricane (H) strength before making landfall.
Marco has its center located North of the Yucatan peninsula and is closer tow Louisiana. The track is somewhat less uncertain and NOAA’s National Hurricane forecasts have it making landfall close to New Orleans on the morning of Monday, Aug. 24. Marco is expected to have Hurricane (H) strength when it approaches the shore.

People and authorities in the area certainly might want to keep an eye or two on both tropical storms and make the necessary preparations.

Tropical Storms Laura and Marco Aug. 23, 2020

As of Aug. 23, 00:00 UTC the following amount of rainfall is predicted over a 24 hour period:

Rainfall forecasts for Laura and Marco for Aug. 23, 2020

GOES-East satellite GeoColor imagery (true color in daytime, multispectral IR at night)

Hospitalization Data for Texas – August 22, 2020

The data source is Texas Department of Health Services and the data is up to data as of August 21, 2020.

The downward movement of total number of hospitalizations in Texas continued past seven days:

Fig. 1 – Total number of hospitalizations in Texas April 12, 2020 – August 21, 2020

The three main contributing TSAs (Trauma Service Areas) are still E – Dallas/Fort Worth, P – San Antonio and Q – Houston:

Fig. 2 – Hospitalizations in TSAs E, P, Q April 12, 2020 – August 21, 2020

Houston has almost come down to the same level of hospitalizations as Dallas/Fort Worth and all three are going down in numbers.

Fig. 3 – Hospitalizations in all TSAs except E, P, Q April 12, 2020 – August 21, 2020

V – Lower Rio Grande Valley is still the largest contributor, but still coming down nicely. O – Austin is also reducing hospitalizations in a significant manner.

It’s also interesting to compare total hospitalizations to total available beds:

Fig. 4 – Total beds compared to hospitalizations in all of Texas April 12, 2020 – August 21, 2020

You’ll note that for July 17 and July 22, 2020, there are more beds occupied than are available.

With the last chart is important to note that not all hospitals report all numbers in a timely manner. Or as Texas DSHS notes:

DSHS is reporting incomplete hospitalization numbers 7/23-7/28 due to a transition in reporting to comply with new federal requirements. DSHS continues to work with Texas hospitals during this transition to ensure all facilities can fully report the data required.

Daily Hospitalizatons & Deaths Numbers for United States – State by State

Updated chart showing a state-by-state comparison of hospitalization and deaths numbers. It shows 56 US states, possessions and territories (such as Guam and Puerto Rico) the y-axis is scaled the same for all sub-charts which makes them easily comparable and gives you a quick overview how the absolute numbers compare.

The chart was produced with data from covidtrackin.com with data current as of Aug. 18, 2020 and was written in R.

First, total hospitalizations on any given day (full 4800x4800px version):

Second, daily new deaths (full 4800x4800px version):

Frequently Chosen First Names for Babies in Switzerland 2019

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO) has published a hitparade of most frequently used first names for babies born in 2019.

Some key data for 2019. Female births – 42,049. Male births – 44,123. In the following chart only the first 203/205 names of this hitparade were used. They account for 20,935 (~50%) and 21,993 (~50%) births respectively.

Before doing any actual statistics with the data from SFSO, I just wanted to chart the number of occurrences of the names and see how this looks like.

For female and male names this looks like this (red lines are linear and logarithmic “trends”):

I would have expected a more linear decline in occurences of names but it looks almost like an exponential decline.

2011 ES4 – Small but Close

For September 1, 2020 NASA schedules the close passage of asteroid 2011 ES4. “Close” meaning 0.32 LD, where LD stands for lunar distance which in this context is 382,400km. So it comes as close as 122,368km.

Currently August 11, 2020, the asteroid 2011 ES4 is here:

Fig.1 – 2011 ES4 orbit as per NASA JPL

It’s size is given as being between 22 and 49 metres. So it’s not too large and difficult or impossible to view with a telescope.

In theory it is visible from Zurich, Switzerland but only via long exposure photography – and if you can find a place dark enough:

Fig. 2 – Asteroid 2011 ES4 according to TheSkyLive

NSA on Limiting Location Data Exposure

The National Security Agency has issued a document about how to mitigate security issues that may arise through use of “location services” and how to mitigate those risks.

Mobile devices determine location through any combination of Global Positioning System (GPS) and wireless signals (e.g., cellular, wireless (Wi-Fi®), or Bluetooth® (BT)). Location data can be extremely valuable and must be protected. It can reveal details about the number of users in a location, user and supply movements, daily routines (user and organizational), and can expose otherwise unknown associations between users and locations.

Key point: Turning off location services does not turn off GPS, and does not significantly reduce the risk of location exposure.
Also, location services is not synonymous with GPS. Even with GPS and cellular data unavailable, a mobile device can calculate location and apps and websites can use sensor data without requesting permission from the user.
And it’s not just your smartphone or tablet. This applies to fitness trackers, smart watches, smart medical devices and other smart and IoT devices as well.

The mitigation measures given by NSA would likely turn your mobile device into a useless brick, so they are unlikely to help the average user much. Still they are worth a read and some can be used by everyone. However, if you want to be sure, leave the device at home! Keep this in mind when an app promises anonymity or data privacy

The full document:

Solar Cycle 25 May Already be Upon Us

The scientific consensus of the NOAA/NSA co-chaired international panel to forecast the new says that the new cycle will peak around July 2025 (+/- 8 months) and will be of average, i.e. moderate, intensity.
The solar minimum may have already occured in April 2020 (+/- 6 months) which seems likely judging by the recent sunspots and acitivity.

However, there are non-consensus opinions that see Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest since records began. A chart from the work of McIntosh, Chapman, Leamon, Egeland and Watkins:

The green dot is the number of sunspots predicted in the consensus view, the blue dot is the number of sunspots their model predicts.