About Zaporozhye NPP Accident Prediction Models

In recent days, we could see on social media some images and videos with ‘prediction of consequences of a serious nuclear accident in the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant’.
Here’s an example for August 29:

Fig. 1 – Image showing ‘Summary dose from all sources, potential for 14 days’
Fig. 2- Video showing ‘Effective doese from a cloud of all nucleides [mSv/year]

So, what do we see on these Energoatom videos and images?
According to their (very sparse) description, it shows ‘the consequences of a serious accident in the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant’.

Continue reading “About Zaporozhye NPP Accident Prediction Models”

Pandemic of the Unvaccinated? Not Anymore (continued)

I wrote about the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” (I’m using the term non-vaccinated) and how official numbers do not support that story-line – at least not for the UK – about a week ago. In the post, I cited from the COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report 48.

Data of hospitalisations in weeks 45 to 48:

Fig. 1 – Table of Hospitalizations in UK showing vaccinated/not-vaccinated status
Continue reading “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated? Not Anymore (continued)”

Data Manipulation by Hospitals and the Media – Again on the “Running Out of Beds” Scare

Switzerland is not running out of ICU beds. It’s a fake news scare peddled by mainstream media and politicians.
The proof is in the data from the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) which records the number of ICU beds available and occupied. The data clearly shows that hospitals are adjusting the number of ICU beds on an as needed basis to keep occupancy as high as possible while still having a number of beds available for emergencies.

Here’s the data from Feb. 15 2021 to Dec. 10 2021:

Continue reading “Data Manipulation by Hospitals and the Media – Again on the “Running Out of Beds” Scare”

Pandemic of the Unvaccinated? Not Anymore…

Not long ago, as recent as Nov. 23, several politicians and media have declared there to be a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’ (should actually be not-vaccinated). While this misguided rhetoric has now been dialed back, the data now shows, that the claim was not quite substantiated when it was made.

A few weeks ago a letter titled “The epidemiological relevance of the COVID-19-vaccinated population is increasing” was published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe containing the following statement:

Continue reading “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated? Not Anymore…”

Hospitals running out of ICU Beds in Switzerland – not really 2.0 (update 2)

I am not going to belabor this point any longer, and conclude the topic here with presenting more evidence that the “Swiss hospital are running out of ICU beds” story in the news media is completely false (fake news!).
Hospital are running at a high occupancy, yes, but the ICU-bed capacity is adapted as needed and changes from day to day.
This can can be seen directly from the data provided by the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) by everyone who cares to actually look at the daily numbers and compare them for several days.
Here are the numbers from December 1 and December 2, 2021:

Fig. 1 – ICU Beds in Switzerland Dec. and Dec. 2 compared

It’s easy to see that for Switzerland, numbers are actually slightly down from Dec. 1 to Dec. 2:

  • Total ICU beds have gone up by +1 (but that’s still 4 less than on Nov. 30);
  • The total occupancy has gone down by -7 beds;
  • COVID-19 patients has gone up by +9, while Non-COVID-19 patients has gone down by -14 beds;
  • Free ICU has gone up by +8 beds

Occupancy is at 81.2% on December 2, which is -0.9% compared to December 1. On November 30, it was 81.1%, but there were 863 ICU beds that day.
So, it’s again obvious, that giving the number “ICU beds are x% occupied” is highly misleading, as the total number, the “100%” changes from day to day.

It’s also easy to see that the situation in Zurich has improved from Dec. 1 to Dec. 2:

  • Total number of beds has stayed the same, at 183 beds;
  • Total occupancy has gone down by -9 beds;
  • COVID-19 patients occupancy has gone down by -1 beds;
  • Non-COVID-19 patients occupancy has gone down by -8 beds;
  • Free ICU beds has gone up +9 beds

So in conclusion, we can see from the numbers, that hospital ICU-beds, are managed on an “as-needed” basis. They are activated and deactivated as the situation requires, and hospitals are not interested in running a high-number of unoccupied ICU-beds, just to keep the statistics nice. Of course, there is a maximum number to which ICU-beds can be increased, but has that been reached yet? We don’t know and are not told in any statistics.
The real limiting factor is staff-availability, not number of physical beds, by the way. But curiously, for that, we don’t see any statistics, and we also are not told, what is done to alleviate the pressure on the medical staff.

Hospitals running out of ICU Beds in Switzerland – not really 2.0 (update)

Today, we can again read alarmist news about hospitals running at or near capacity, like the following from 20min.ch:

Wie die Zürcher Gesundheitsdirektorin mitteilt, sind 42 Personen auf der Intensivstation, davon 24 am Beatmungsgerät. Das Universitätsspital Zürich ist zu 98 Prozent ausgelastet.

As the Zurich health director reports, 42 people are in the intensive care unit, 24 of them on the ventilator. The University Hospital Zurich is 98 percent full.

Source: 20min.ch

Let’s look at the official numbers from the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health again. Here, I have compared the numbers from November 28 with those of November 30:

Fig. 1 – – Hospital Capacity Switzerland November 28 and 30

For Switzerland we make some observations:

  • First, note the Total number of ICU beds for Switzerland. Nov. 28: 854, Nov. 30: 863. The total number of ICU-beds is not constant over time, it is GROWING (+9). So the “beds are x% occupied” news are grossly misleading;
  • Second, note the number of non-COVID-19 patients in ICU beds has grown quicker (+25) than the number of COVID-19 patients (+16). This is evidence, that COVID-19 is not the only driver for increased demand for ICU beds;

Let’s look at the numbers for Canton of Zurich:

  • First, note the Total number of ICU beds for Zurich. Nov. 28: 179, Nov. 30: 183. Number of beds were increased in two days (+4)
  • Second, note the number of non-COVID-19 patients has grown quicker (+5) than the number of COVID-19 patients (+4). This is evidence, that COVID-19 is not the only driver for increased demand for ICU beds;
  • Third, the number of available ICU beds has dropped by -5 and is now at 12 (6.6% of Total for that day)

So, the key observations are:

  1. The total “capacity” of ICU-beds differs from day to day, as, presumably, hospitals create new capacity as needed. Meaning: News like the above, that “hospitals are to x% occupied” are nonsense in this form, because they do not take into account that the capacity can be and is increased as needed (up to a certain maximum, of course, but we and they don’t know where that is);
  2. Contrary to what these press statements would make you believe, ICU beds are not only filling up because of COVID-19 patients, In fact, non-COVID-19 patients fill up ICU-beds in Switzerland quicker than COVID-19 patients do. So, the obvious question: What’s up with that? But nobody in this shitty news outlets actually asks these “obvious” questions – I wonder why…

Hospitals running out of ICU Beds in Switzerland – not really 2.0

I’ve looked at the current situation with hospital capacity in Switzerland, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), with data current as of November 28, 2021:

As of November 28, 2021, ICU-bed situation is a follows in Switzerland:

  • Overall, 22.8% of all ICU beds are free. These numbers include all patients, not only the COVID-19 ones;
  • Overall, COVID-19 patients occupy 25.4% of ICU bed capacity;
  • Canton of Zurich has most ICU beds (179), and has only 9.5% beds free (17 beds in absolute numbers). It’s worthwhile to note that 21.8% are COVID-19 patients (39), 68.7% are non-COVID-19 patients.
Continue reading “Hospitals running out of ICU Beds in Switzerland – not really 2.0”

La Palma Eruption: No Sign of Calming Down

While no longer in the news cycle, at least outside Spain, the volcano on La Palma shows no sign of winding down it’s eruption.
This morning (Nov. 30) alone, seismic activity was elevated, with 121 quakes one of which was 4.1 on Richter Scale, writes local newspaper Canarias7.

Earthquake activity in the last 83/90 days, according to IGN:

Seismic signals (volcanic tremors) today, according to IGN:

Continue reading “La Palma Eruption: No Sign of Calming Down”

PCR Tests Don’t Identify the Variant

With the news of a new SARS-Cov-2 variant named ‘Omicron’, or rather B.1.1.529 with it’s technical designation on the horizon, it bears repeating, that your usual PCR test is not capable of determining which variant of the virus was detected in a positive test.
That’s what “Whole Genome Sequencing” is for, or more specifically, next-generation sequencing (NGS) as noted by the CDC. So what is NGS:

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a massively parallel sequencing technology that offers ultra-high throughput, scalability, and speed. The technology is used to determine the order of nucleotides in entire genomes or targeted regions of DNA or RNA. NGS has revolutionized the biological sciences, allowing labs to perform a wide variety of applications and study biological systems at a level never before possible.  

Source: illumina.com

The method has been used to detect other variants of SARS-Cov-2.
Here’s a good opportunity to clear up the terms “variant” and “strain”.
In the process of replicating the viral RNA errors occur, i.e. during copying, one or more constituents of the RNA genetic code are replaced with other constituents. This is called a mutation. Viruses with mutations are called “variants” and differ slightly from the original virus. Some mutations have no effect at all, others change the behaviour of the virus, in which case the mutation is called “strain”, a “strain” is also a “variant”, but not vice versa – see here for a nice introduction to this topic.
Previous strains were the UK variant (B.1.17), the (previous South African variant (B.1.351).
The current newly identified South African variant (B.1.1.529) is most likely also a strain, since it has increased transmission rates.
Now, it would be interesting to know, when NGS are performed, how many are performed and how long they take.
I haven’t found numbers so far, so I can only guess. Given my understanding of the technology, I have to assume that not every sample is tested (a test takes time and cost money). Or in the words on an article on the Roche website, published June 1, 2021:

While there have been significant technological and cost-effective advances in analyzing the genome with NGS, the method has not yet been widely used in routine clinical practice for diagnosis. This suggests that there remain many challenges and uncertainties that clinical laboratories, regulatory agencies, payers and other stakeholders need to address before NGS becomes standard for diagnosing diseases or biomarker testing.

Source: roche.com


This would lead me to believe that it is usually not determined scientifically, which variant of SARS-Cov-2 someone has tested positive for.
So, if media and politicians claim that such-and-such variant was rapidly spreading, that is largely an assumption, in my view. Of course, there can always be information I’ve missed…